OK so this has nothing to do with porn, but I posted it on my ESPN blog so I might as well share it here.
Enjoy, or blast away…..
Catcher: Jason Veritek is one of the great clutch players in this series. At first glance this match up would appear to favor the Sox. Tek isn’t the same though. He hit just .230 this year with 13 HR and 43 RBI in 131 games. On the other hand Mike Napoli hit .273 with 20 HR and 49 RBI in just 78 games. Don’t like the BA fool you though. Napoli was hovering around .200 for most of the season. His final month was incredible and the average rose as he pushed the HR totals rose. Neither guy is known for defense though Tek made only 4 errors and threw out 56% of runners. Napoli made 3 errors (In half the games) and threw out 52% of runners. The big difference though is that Tek caught for a 3.66 ERA while Napoli was a 4.45. Is that because Tek is the better catcher or does it reflect the fact that he didn’t catch Wakefield?
Advantage: Angels slightly. Napoli has been on fire and if he hits as well in the playoffs as he did in September he adds a big bat at the bottom of an Angel lineup that can frenzy hit with the best of them.
First Base: Kevin Youkilis had an amazing season. He hit .312 with 29 HR and 115 RBI. Those are very solid numbers and he threw up a .996 fielding percentage at first base. Last year this was a mismatch with the Sox slugger holding a clear advantage over Angel first baseman Casey Kotchman. A deadline deal for Mark Teixeira changed all that. In 54 games with the Angels, Tex hit .358 with 14 HR and 43 RBI. Add his 20/78 numbers and the Angel first baseman has 33 and 121. He is the big bat that that Angels have been missing the last few years in the post season. He also happens to be one of the best defensive first basemen in the game.
Advantage: Angels slightly. Tex has been the big bopper the Angels need while Youlk is the glue that holds the Sox together. This would probably be a push if not for the very real possibility that Youkilis might be at third in this series leaving Sean Casey or Mark Kotasy to match up with Tex. Either of those match ups would be lopsided.
Second Base: What should be a match up of two of the best young second basemen in the majors is up in the air. Howie Kendrick was limited to 92 games this season due to various injuries. When he played he was solid, hitting .303 with 3 HR and 37 RBI (And 26 doubles). Kendrick’s defense has improved, he has decent speed and is a great gap hitter. Is he healthy though? It doesn’t matter much because Dustin Pedroia was out of his mind. He hit .326 with 17 HR and 83 RBI, scored 118 runs and stole 20 bases. These numbers have him in the MVP race and give the Sox a clear advantage.
Advantage: Sox. Even at 100% Kendrick didn’t have the sort of year Pedoria did. Pedroia has more speed, more power and is slightly better on defense. If the Angels have one edge here it is the fact that while Pedoria is a must-have for the Sox to succeed, the Angels offense rolled along with Kendrick out. He’s a bonus at this point and could really thrive in Fenway.
Third Base: Mike Lowell and Chone Figgins do very different things. Figgins is the Angels’ catalyst and one of the most disruptive forces on the bases. Lowell is a defensive master who hits for power and has a history of coming up big when it matters. Both were limited this year by injuries. Figgins played 116 games while Lowell managed 113. In those games Lowell managed 17 HR and 73 RBI making him another run producing bat in a potent Sox lineup. Figgins was down this year at just .263 but still stole 34 bases and has vastly improved his plate discipline. Defense is considered Lowell’s strength, but Figgins actually has a better FP .978 to .967. Health issues create a problem for the Sox here. Lowell is gimpy and can’t seem to move on defense. If he doesn’t play Kevin Youkilis will take over, giving the Sox the advantage here on offense, but hurting them defensively.
Advantage: Angels. Figgins is healthy, but Lowell is limping into the post season. If he is limited on defense or struggles at the plate the Angels will take advantage. Figgins must get on base however or the Angels offense will stall.
Shortstop: Rookie Jed Lowrie did not make an error at short in 49 games this year. Erik Aybar made 18. Both teams used SS by committee with Lowrie taking over for injured Julio Lugo and Alex Cora. Aybar won the job by default when Maicer Izturis went down for the season. Lowrie struggled at just .258 with a pair of HR. Aybar put up decent numbers at .273 with 37 RBI. He is a spark at the bottom of the lineup for the Angels and if Lowell is hurting, will challenge the Sox with his bunting ability.
Advantage: Draw. Neither team has a stand out shortstop, but either could turn things around with a big play or a decent appearance at the plate.
Right Field: Former MVP Vladimir Guerrero is still the big star in the Angel line up. He had down year with a .303/27/91 season. Those numbers to not reflect a stellar second half. The addition of Teixeria turned the year around for Guerrero who sees better pitches now than at any time during his Angel tenure. JD Drew is another wounded Sox. He carried the team at times, especially when David Ortiz was out for a month. Finishing with 19/79 in just 109 games Drew can be a vital cog in the Sox lineup. If he is hurt, the Sox will turn to Mark Kotasy or Jacob Ellsbury in right.
Advantage: Angels. Guerrero’s past playoff failures are fast becoming an albatross around his neck. He virtually vanished against the Sox last year and was absent in the Angels’ 2005 ALCS loss to the White Sox. He will need to step up in a big way if the Angels are to win. On the other hand, he is batting between Tex and Torii Hunter this year instead of Howie Kendrick and a half blinded Garrett Anderson.
Center Field: Torii Hunter was the big bat the Angels went after in the off season. One of the best defense center fielders in the game he gives the Angels the advantage on D no matter who the Sox have in center. He quietly put up good numbers (.278/21/78.19 SB) and loves to climb the wall at home. The Sox counter with Jacoby Ellsbury and his 50 SB. Keeping him off the bases will be key to an Angel team that doesn’t throw runners out very well. If Drew can’t play, Ellsubry may move to right leaving the Sox with Cocoa Crisp in the lineup.
Advantage: Angels but only slightly. Hunter was very good at times this year, but was far from spectacular. Ellsbury fills a role and can generate runs quickly.
Left Field: Jason Bay was very good following his trade from Pittsburgh. He hit .293 with 9 HR and won some games for the Sox in dramatic fashion. Garrett Anderson rebounded from a disastrous post season last year to hit .293 with 15 HR and 84 RBI. His late season move to the two spot in the lineup was done out of desperation, but he has proved to be a dangerous bat between Figgins and Tex. Bay has the advantage, but he has some huge post season shoes to fill. A formidable bat, Bay does not strike Manny-like fear in opposing pitcher just yet.
Advantage: Red Sox. Bay has yet to shine in the post season and he will have to if the Sox are to win. Anderson is healthy this year and playing for a contract. Either player could turn the tide.
Designated Hitter: The Angels are likely to use Juan Rivera as the DH. After spending much of the first half on the bench, Rivera hit 12 HRs and showed great power at times. None of that matters however. David Ortiz is still the most feared bat in the series. Injuries limited Ortiz to 109 games and a .263 BA, but he belted 23 HR and 89 RBI. With Manny gone, much weight will be on Ortiz’ shoulders. He has never shown any difficulty handling that burden.
Advantage: Sox. Hands Down.
Starting Pitching: A three man rotation actually favors the Sox more than the Angels. Stretching the rotation to five would give the Angels Weaver and Garland who are arguably the best 4/5 in the game. The Angels short staff includes two surprising names. Last year Earvin Santana was a disaster and Joe Saunders was a promising future arm. This year they combined to go 33-14 with a sub 3.45 ERA. After an injury sidelined him early John Lackey returned to form winning 12 of 17 decisions on the year. At 45-19 the Angels trio is tough, but lacks post season brilliance. Lackey must return to the form that the Angels saw in the 2002 post season if they are to win. The Sox are hampered a bit by injuries here as well. Playoff stud Josh Beckett was 12-10 this year, but always raises his game in the playoffs. His injury puts the first two games into the hands of Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The pair combined for a 34-9 record. If Beckett is back for game three then the Sox have the clear advantage. If they have to turn to Paul Byrd or another starter, the pendulum tips back into the Angels favor.
Advantage: Sox. If Beckett is back for game three the Angels could be in big trouble. John Lackey has struggled in the past against the Sox and both Santana and Saunders are facing the playoff pressure without previous success. If Lester or Dice K can get a win on the road, the Red Sox could wrap up the series in Boston.
Bullpen: Both teams have dominant closers and big time set up men. If games are placed into the hands of the long relief, the Angels could take advantage of Weaver and Garland. Both are formidable pitchers and Garland’s post season success could be crucial. Shortening the games with the starting staffs, both teams turn games over to their pens. Lopez./Delcarmen/Okjima vs Oliver/Arredondo/Shields looks very even. Whichever team breaks through against the short pen could come up with a big late inning win. Both closers have struggled down the stretch. Record-setting Francisco Rodriguez makes every save an adventure. That could come back to bite him against a tenacious Red Sox team. Jonathan Papelbon had a terrible September, but has a great post season track record. He is about as automatic as anyone in the game.
Advantage: Draw. Paps is more of a sure thing than KRod, but the Angels make up for that with depth.
Bench: Both teams will use their bench in spot situations. Gary Matthews Jr. gives the Angels a solid wild card. Though he struggled at times this year, Matthews has some speed and power and should see some time as a late inning defensive replacement. The Sox may have to use Casey, Kotsay and Crisp as starters, severely limiting their flexibility.
Advantage: Sox, slightly. Unless the have to start, Casey, Kotasy and Crisp give the Sox the edge.
Intangibles: The Red Sox have swept the Angels twice in this decade including last season. They are the proven team with the better pitching staff and the biggest bat. They did however lose 8 of 9 to the Angels this year. On the other side of the coin, the Sox are banged up. If Beckett, Drew or Lowell are missing, the Sox will be hard pressed to repeat their success against the Angels. At 100% the Sox match up very well with the Angels. Without any of their three, they drop down a notch. The Sox are the better home team (56 wins to 51) but the Angels won 51 on the road while the Sox managed just 39 road wins. That makes the first two games in Anaheim crucial. If the Sox can steal a game then they should be confident about wrapping things up at home. Perhaps the biggest intangible in this series is who will step up and replace Manny Ramirez. His absence, the Sox health and the additions of Hunter and Teixeria give the Angels the edge in this series.
Prediction: Angels in 5
